Sidestepping Cracks in the Crystal Ball

There is no doubt that 2009 and probably 2010 are transition years in terms of what is happening in both the consumer and business sectors. Print publications are collapsing like so many worn dominoes (the venerable BusinessWeek being the latest casualty of the print wars), and everyone is looking to online publishing and distribution as the savior of all that is good and holy in information disbursement.

That great search engine optimization god Google has also hit the road and is actively soliciting ad companies to convince them to work with them as the rush for online ad dollars and eyeballs continues. Just as newspaper editor Horace Greeley encouraged people to 'Go West!" to uncover new opportunities outside a saturated East, the new mantra is to 'Go Virtual' as digital prospectors seek riches and fame in the online hills.

All of this may or may not pan out in terms of enough opportunity to go around for everyone. There are those who argue, quite effectively and honestly, that there is a limited base of advertisers and sponsorship money on the online world and only so many paid banner ads and saleable content. Of course, the consumers of digital gold might pay for relevant and useful content, but I wouldn't bet the farm on getting a whole lot from this effort initially.

Still, the research experts and pundits are very optimistic about the future of such things as digital content delivery and video streamed to an LCD screen or mobile device near you. The prospects for next generation video-on-demand technology—known as Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) and Data Centers, for example, is expected to dramatically change the business model and the user experience for video delivery services, says market researcher In-Stat. They claim CDN-provisioned Video-on-Demand (VoD) will allow content owners more control over their creations and provide viewers with more choices in programming and delivery methods.

Over the next five years, the worldwide value of Content Delivery Network services will nearly double, to more than US $2 billion - fueled by cost-cutting technologies that simplify storage, virtualized servers, and standardize networks. In-Stat recommends that traditional TV and subscription-TV Services migrate their existing “siloed” Video-on-Demand infrastructure to more efficient Data Center and CDN models. Internet protocol networks that connect from Data Centers and CDNs to Final Mile networks provide a “lean” delivery system that can profitably support Advanced Advertising and more personalized video delivery experiences.

In-Stat claims North America will remain the dominant geographic segment for CDNs through 2013. However, Europe and Asia Pacific will see significantly higher growth rates. The companies that are positioned to prosper include: Akamai, Limelight Networks, DG Fastchannel, CD Networks, Level 3, Cotendo, Internap, Highwinds CDN, Signiant, Cisco, Juniper Networks, Alcatel/Lucent, Ericsson, Adobe Systems, Microsoft, Apple, Real Networks, thePlatform, Harris Broadcast Communications, Thomson Technicolor, Ascent Media, Intel, Inlet, Envivio, Concurrent, Edgeware and Verivue.

All very exciting and encouraging, we think. But, the problem with most projections and forecasts is they are very susceptible to uncontrollable outside forces and the whims and fancies of an often fickle (and now economically shell-shocked) consumer market. In this case, the old crystal ball may not only be a bit cloudy, but may also be showing a few hairline cracks from the rigors of past attempts to chart the right course.