More Muscle in the Viral Video Medium

Investors, speculators and others struggling to find a solid return on investment (ROI) model for mobile media (outside traditional distribution models) can look no further than the impact a viral campaign has on the bottom line of a target topic.

A few years back, I gave a presentation at the Toronto Film Festival on mobile media, following a talk hosted by such people at the assistant director of the movie Titanic. Their advice to the audience of aspiring director, producers and filmmakers was to borrow all the money you can from relatives and friends, max out your credit cards, and expect to spend $60K - $100K to make that first 'filmed' production.

When I took the podium (later in the day on a Saturday, where about 75 people attended), I admitted I could not argue with success, although mobile media has rewritten the rules a bit. Now, instead of dollars (per se), the impact of mobile media is measured in eyeballs, or the number of people viewing a video on YouTube or some other distribution platform.

As anyone in marketing, trade journalism, broadcasting or advertising knows, the more people who look at your video or ad the better your chances are for a 'sale'. Also, the more you can charge for supporting or related advertising, if you take the broadcasting model (just look at how much television gets for a 30-second spot during the U.S. Superbowl broadcast!).

Anyway, a good friend of mine recently brought an interesting video to my attention, created by a consumer who had a very bad experience with an airline. I have attached it to this posting for your review and enjoyment (creativity and cleverness still rules!), but the bottom line is that it may have had a hand in pummeling this airline's stock price. The message here (aside from treating customers with more respect) is that viral videos do work and are successful in terms of mass market saturation and impact. A good thing to know for aspiring mobile media filmmakers and advertisers looking to target a very ripe and visually accessible audience.

Small footnote: This video is very appropriate, given news from Delta Airlines this week that it will be raising its fees for checked baggage on its flights. Personally, I plan to fly completely naked from hereon, just to avoid the fees. It's also a comfort thing...


United Breaks Guitars Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YGc4zOqozo

Sidestepping Cracks in the Crystal Ball

There is no doubt that 2009 and probably 2010 are transition years in terms of what is happening in both the consumer and business sectors. Print publications are collapsing like so many worn dominoes (the venerable BusinessWeek being the latest casualty of the print wars), and everyone is looking to online publishing and distribution as the savior of all that is good and holy in information disbursement.

That great search engine optimization god Google has also hit the road and is actively soliciting ad companies to convince them to work with them as the rush for online ad dollars and eyeballs continues. Just as newspaper editor Horace Greeley encouraged people to 'Go West!" to uncover new opportunities outside a saturated East, the new mantra is to 'Go Virtual' as digital prospectors seek riches and fame in the online hills.

All of this may or may not pan out in terms of enough opportunity to go around for everyone. There are those who argue, quite effectively and honestly, that there is a limited base of advertisers and sponsorship money on the online world and only so many paid banner ads and saleable content. Of course, the consumers of digital gold might pay for relevant and useful content, but I wouldn't bet the farm on getting a whole lot from this effort initially.

Still, the research experts and pundits are very optimistic about the future of such things as digital content delivery and video streamed to an LCD screen or mobile device near you. The prospects for next generation video-on-demand technology—known as Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) and Data Centers, for example, is expected to dramatically change the business model and the user experience for video delivery services, says market researcher In-Stat. They claim CDN-provisioned Video-on-Demand (VoD) will allow content owners more control over their creations and provide viewers with more choices in programming and delivery methods.

Over the next five years, the worldwide value of Content Delivery Network services will nearly double, to more than US $2 billion - fueled by cost-cutting technologies that simplify storage, virtualized servers, and standardize networks. In-Stat recommends that traditional TV and subscription-TV Services migrate their existing “siloed” Video-on-Demand infrastructure to more efficient Data Center and CDN models. Internet protocol networks that connect from Data Centers and CDNs to Final Mile networks provide a “lean” delivery system that can profitably support Advanced Advertising and more personalized video delivery experiences.

In-Stat claims North America will remain the dominant geographic segment for CDNs through 2013. However, Europe and Asia Pacific will see significantly higher growth rates. The companies that are positioned to prosper include: Akamai, Limelight Networks, DG Fastchannel, CD Networks, Level 3, Cotendo, Internap, Highwinds CDN, Signiant, Cisco, Juniper Networks, Alcatel/Lucent, Ericsson, Adobe Systems, Microsoft, Apple, Real Networks, thePlatform, Harris Broadcast Communications, Thomson Technicolor, Ascent Media, Intel, Inlet, Envivio, Concurrent, Edgeware and Verivue.

All very exciting and encouraging, we think. But, the problem with most projections and forecasts is they are very susceptible to uncontrollable outside forces and the whims and fancies of an often fickle (and now economically shell-shocked) consumer market. In this case, the old crystal ball may not only be a bit cloudy, but may also be showing a few hairline cracks from the rigors of past attempts to chart the right course.

Mobile Subscriber Numbers Reach for the Stars

Venerable scientist and visionary Carl Sagan was right when he used the term ‘billions and billions’. However, in this case, the deceased but always remembered Sagan may have referred to the expected growth in mobile subscribers over the next few years.

According to market watcher ABI Research, mobile subscriptions will reach 4.3 billion in 2009 and grow to nearly 5.4 billion by 2013. Driving this growth are user demands to stay in touch, to be informed and to be entertained. Add to this evolving and changing distribution models, a greater choice of connected devices, faster networks and proliferation of mobile applications, and you have the ‘perfect storm’ of activities for mobile systems.

“Customers increasingly want a personalized experience with their mobile device and service. Service personalization involves not only allowing them to find and select the right mobile services and applications but also to control, monitor, and pay for mobile services in a way that best suits their needs," says ABI Research Mobile Services practice director Dan Shey.

Senior analyst Jeff Orr adds, “Although the mobile consumer can be defined by mobile voice subscriptions and spending on messaging, web access and other mobile data services, those measurements are simplistic. Mobile consumers are increasingly defined by the applications they acquire to personalize their mobile experience, by their adoption of mobile broadband, their shopping choices, and how, when and where they use their mobile services.”

Challenges ahead: Making informed choices about this complex mobile customer landscape and planning, creating, deploying and operating mobile services.

This data was released by ABI Research and its “The Mobile Consumer Research Service”. More info at http://www.abiresearch.com/..